KPMG-Audited Companies are Trading Strangely on Polymarket

Feb 24, 2026

Disclaimer: I’m not saying anything nefarious is occurring (remember this!). I’m just displaying what I found when I did an analysis - you make your own decisions. I’m not a financial professional.

Introduction
The ‘Company Earnings’ section is one of the most innovative and helpful categories on Polymarket. It’s an actual improvement upon what traditional finance companies offer to the public. For a variety of reasons, traditional sell-side firms don’t really care about creating accurate estimates. That’s why so many companies ‘always beat earnings’ — earnings are systemically underestimated.

I’m not the only one who thinks the traditional system can be improved; a group of academics found that Polymarket earning estimates are more accurate than traditional estimates.

As a fun challenge for myself, I tried to create a model more accurate than the Polymarket consensus. Usually, my model’s predictions were fairly close to the polymarket odds.

However, I started noticing that my model was occasionally 60%+ different than the polymarket consensus. And I was always wrong in those extreme cases.

Digging through Discord, I saw this comment from the top Market Maker for the Earnings market. It potentially explained many of the weird results I’d been seeing.

I have a ton of respect for the Manatee, but I still didn’t actually believe this was insider trading. On Polymarket, everyone thinks everything is insider trading. And it was just hard for me to believe that people with access to information worth millions would use it to make a few bucks on Polymarket.

I did see some unusual patterns though.

Here’s my analysis of some of the trades and users. You decide for yourself!

Analysis
User: RandiBabuRandi (0x4038f719b14e1fbacc31be0116605ec6efe07d42)
Pattern: Bets small on non-KPMG bets. Bets big on KPMG audited companies (WFC, KMX, FIVE)

The interesting thing about the Well Fargo market is that it completely flipped the night before the earnings were announced. People suddenly acted with supreme confidence. Could there be a legit reason this happened? Of course — but it is another datapoint.

User: Kaleenbhaiya (0x8fa98e6d9b2a5985abbf7edc9035199392e8ab24)
Pattern: Only bets big on KPMG. Always wins KPMG. Same trades as other weird traders.

User: KARLSON1970 (0x56518fabda5d36ccf514beb058b2a4ec820c7530)
Pattern: Same TKO/BEN combination as the other odd users. BEN is not KPMG, btw.

User: kundragame (0x1a1d18b776c297539df61b4f394e3c65d7b051e0)
Pattern: Only bets big on KPMG markets. Has similar trades to the others.

User: molgum12 (0xdd21f5155b3c014328df96e027ce388113aef7ac)
Pattern: Only bets big on KPMG

User: orisonpro 0x696babd2d70f82096289b008a313ed49aa291638
Pattern: Only bets big on KPMG companies

User: greatfan1983 (0x4230f6f33b9b9eef256e77673729a3964ea9252e)
Pattern: Same KPMG trades as the others. One Degen TSLA bet (not like others)

User: Kosamurai/Rossatttttt (0xd0c03f20489b77e27badd174e753deeacd644135)
Pattern: Mostly KPMG markets. (did lose on the non-KPMG)

User: perlgrow (0x7d7a4812c6ced10653b67e652aa42e89dce3e192)
Pattern: All big bets are KPMG

Doordash All-Stars

User: Youaregu (0x42f1ce163f941d7ba0cd12c501c11a4751794a12)
Pattern: Crushing the KPMG markets (but also Coursera, which is not KPMG)

User: Anon (0x202d88e56b512f32194faacd5dfcf77713b83d97) & Anon (0x60a028937929520ecef00ac8d3b158af93255f2e)
Pattern: These are for the most recent Doordash quarter. Not so suspicious by themselves, but I was watching because of last quarter. Maybe they are just Doordash experts though! I legitimately think that could be the case.

Current State Of Affairs
Most of the above trades were from the previous quarter. There have been some unusual KPMG trades in the current reporting quarter as well. Here is just one example from the current batch:

User: Anon (0x701e37585fff132e27a5a51c6e778c5c62219013)
Pattern: Seems to only bet on KPMG trades

There are some other weird, ongoing trades. I’ll wait until they conclude to go in-depth there. Maybe they will surprise us!

Conclusion

I’m not saying anything nefarious is going on here. Maybe it’s a coincidence! Maybe there is a legitimate reason some users are only betting on KPMG-audited companies and cycling through usernames. Maybe KPMG-audited companies just have a certain je ne sais quoi that make them uniquely fun to trade. Maybe people are finding out early, but in an ethical way. I’m not sure! I just collected the data - you decide! But I take these concerns serious enough that I wanted to alert people so they can make an informed decision.

-Matt

Matt Lamers 🐑
Twitter: eventwavesio
Email: matt@eventwaves.io